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Disappointment with a capital D – watch out for overconfidence

There is a clear and present danger in trade at the moment – overconfidence. Overconfidence that policy and private capital will align and deliver trader a bullish windfall. However, from where we sit, this overconfidence should be defined as likely-disappointment. Let us explain. China 2024 is not China of 1994. After a week away for Go...

October 9, 2024
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Beware the Geopolitical trade: An evergreen trade risk to be remembered

The horrible events that we're currently seeing in the Middle East can sometimes create an unwanted attraction for traders. Chasing short, sharp swings in things like oil and other commodities of this ilk, might appear attractive for the here and now upside opportunity but be aware geopolitical trading always ends in bad outcomes. This is why we...

October 2, 2024
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When’s it our turn? A sustainable pivot

As we sit here and watch our overseas central bank counterparts move on interest rates. Our central bank gave us a new term, to explain why rate cuts are a long way off in their thinking. This term “sustainably” – that is  “sustainably back to target”, “sustainable path”, and a hundred other zingers that basically point out that the ...

September 30, 2024
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It Is Time – the other side of the mountain

In the words of one of the greatest supporting roles of all-time, this being Rafiki from the Lion King – It is time, (finally). We understand this is a bit tongue and cheek but the amount of false starts in 2024, we think it sums up what traders have been experiencing. So, we have reached the other side of the mountain. The cuts are coming. Th...

September 18, 2024
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The 3 Plays facing all Aussie Traders

We will do a deep dive into how to trade the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday but for now we need to address the Fed and others from an Australian traders perspective as it is one of 3 plays we need to be mindful of. 1. Hard or Soft – Can we stick the landing? All central banks across the developed world are doing summersaul...

September 17, 2024
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